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Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodities, the price of iron ore, zinc, copper, oil and natural gas appears poised to continue its upward trend.
Specifically, industrial metals were some of the largest winners of 2016 and this trend has continued in 2017 so far. Iron ore was the foremost gainer making a strong recovery from the lows of a disastrous 2015, with prices reaching USD82.4/tonne in December.
The climb has continued in 2017 with yesterday’s (27/02) price closing in excess of USD 87 /tonne, a far cry from 2015’s levels. While iron ore and steel futures did exhibit a slow-down last week, they jumped again on Monday by ~4% signalling the bullishness of the market. The latest 4-month rally has left a positive impression on market players, with mining giants such as Vale or BHP expecting a very strong year.
In any discussion regarding iron ore, it is important to take a look at the most influential nation in this market, China. While there has been some anxiety regarding China’s increasing production in 2017 (expected to increase by 0.5%, up to 825m metric tonnes), it is also important to note the increase in domestic demand, as China is expected to consume approx. 87% of this production.
Iron ore tends to follow Chinese steelmaking trends and the increase in infrastructure projects has driven up demand for steel, with Shanghai rebar hitting its highest price since February 2014. As China continues to provide support to the construction sector mainly through partnerships with private sector businesses on public infrastructure projects, this interior demand is expected to hold up for the rest of the year as well. This coupled with expected steel production limitations in 2017 leads to strong price expectations.
One variable to look at in 2017 is Trump’s alleged US infrastructure plan. While we have seen infrastructure spending affecting metal prices before, at this point there are not enough specifics to be able to draw a conclusion on whether this would provide any significant uptick on industrial metal prices or if indeed the promise itself will be materialized. It is worth noting that the 2009 US stimulus package which saw ~105bn going to infrastructure spending failed to produce a significant net effect on copper or steel prices.
While optimism continues to abound in most circles, various analysts are questioning whether this rally will be sustainable in the mid-long term with many of them expecting a softening of prices in the second half of 2017 due to the increase in Australian and Brazilian production.
In any case, this sustainable demand has had a noticeable effect on shipping markets and especially the Capesize segment, with today’s earnings quoted in excess of USD 8,000/day compared to the same time last year when average earnings for the size were hovering at around USD 2,300/day.
By Linos Kogevinas
Commercial Executive, Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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