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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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