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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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