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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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