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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 23 September 16
"COLLATERAL LIES" DO NOT NECESSARILY UNDERMINE AN INSURANCE CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
An insured was not precluded from recovering under an insurance policy even though it had made a false statement during t ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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