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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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