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Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
 Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made a splash with a catchy beat and a noticeable video clip reaching the top of the charts. The oil market on the other hand, may attract attention however, whether it will head for higher or lower levels remains very uncertain.
As far as the performance of the crude oil price is concerned, the signals we are getting are so far mixed, with discouraging fundamentals and optimistic headlines equally affecting prices. Both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries have agreed a production cut as a way to deal with the global oil glut and low prices, which resulted in the Brent blend rallying from $46/bbl to a peak of $57/bbl on 6th January, while it’s currently trading around $55/bbl. So far, so good for the big boys of oil but what about the long-term sustainability of these higher price levels?
Russia’s production reached record highs in December and the second-biggest oil producer seemed very happy at this year’s World Economic Forum not only due to their large oil-driven revenues so far, but also due to positive expectations deriving from the new US president who suggests to ease or even remove sanctions imposed on Russia. Even though Russia’s production plays a significant role, the bigger determinant leading to the persistence of the glut could be US shale oil producers. With notably more operating costs and thus a higher breakeven than other oil extractors, most of shale drillers had shut-down production during lower prices only to come back into profitable business at current levels. Finally, taking into consideration the fact that the US dollar has strengthened, hitting a 14-year high during December, pressure for lower price levels grow stronger.
Keeping this insight melodic, you might recall the lyrics of another popular song of the 90s; “Hello, hello, hello, how low?”. Could this be the tune for the tanker market in 2017? The dominant common factor for both the dirty and clean market is the large number of newbuilding deliveries that could potentially lead to lower freight rates. Saying that, as in the short-run tonnage supply will not significantly change; demand is expected to primarily drive the market in the following months. In the dirty sector, lower oil prices may drive demand for ships higher however; those already excessive inventories could be an obstacle to such rally. The outlook for product tankers falls no further from the mixed-signal environment the dirty market operates in, with the LR market seeing a record-high in vessel deliveries. Greater diversification with respect to trade routes and cargoes, especially in the MR market allow for wider range projections; still forecasts for demand growth for petroleum products making any prediction for the freight market challenging.
In conclusion, well, is there any yet? Amidst mixed fundamentals it would be careless to prematurely jump to any conclusions, as market sentiment has proved to be not only an unpredictable factor but also an influential one. Under the current state of uncertainty, it is still unclear whether the bears will prevail or the bulls will be justified and thus the only safe conclusion that can be reached is nicely summed-up in the title of another pop music hit called “Blank Space”.
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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