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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 September 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
Amidst a challenging dry bulk and tanker market, very little time has been spent on the offshore industry developments during the past couple of ye ...
Monday, 19 September 16
AFTER YEARS OF COMA, COAL BECOMES THE MOST ATTRACTIVE COMMODITY RIGHT NOW
COALspot.com: China boosted coal imports in recent months. The Chinese government’s drive to cut over capacity pushed up the demand for therm ...
Monday, 19 September 16
THE CAPE INDEX WAS UP 7.28% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined and ending in a slightly negative note this past ...
Friday, 16 September 16
GLOBAL SHIPBUILDING: THE CHALLENGE TO REMAIN 'ACTIVE' - CHRISTOPHER PEARCE, CLARKSONS
The number of ‘active’ shipyards globally has more than halved since the start of 2009, falling to around 400 shipyards at the start of ...
Friday, 16 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED 6.2% TO 15.1 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short ton ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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