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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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