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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
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