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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 29 September 16
FREIGHT RATES MIGHT CONTINUE TO SLIDE NEXT WEEK DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN CHINA
Supramax
Flat start to week followed by a slight gain in rates for Supramaxes, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
According to Fear ...
Wednesday, 28 September 16
WITHOUT A DOUBT FREIGHT RATES HAVE MOVED UP A BIT TO HEALTHIER LEVELS - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching Q4, it is interesting to perform a review of the last nine months with respect to the second-hand prices of Supramax and Pana ...
Tuesday, 27 September 16
THE CAPESIZE RATE OF INCREASE HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE, UP 39% W/W AND 123% MONTH TO DATE - ALLIED
The Dry bulk market has seen a rare shine in its performance as the capesize sector manages to rally at an unprecedented rate compared to its perfo ...
Monday, 26 September 16
COAL PRICES HAVE BEEN MOVING STEADILY HIGHER AFTER YEARS OF DECLINE
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 26 September 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRM; ALL SEGMENTS WERE UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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