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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
 Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow any further price increases.
We assume Brent and WTI will average USD42 a barrel in 2016, up from our USD35/bbl base case in February. The increase follows evidence that the market will come into balance in the second half of 2016, which has already been reflected in a year-to-date average price of USD41/40 for Brent/WTI.
However, we do not believe that the rapid price recovery seen in the first half of 2016 will continue. The sub-USD30 prices at the start of the year approached cash costs for many producers and were unsustainable in all but the very short term. Prices in the USD40-USD50 range allow most producers to break even on a cash basis, if not to cover sunk costs.
We believe that record high inventories - OECD stocks are still more than 10% higher than normal - and market expectations that US shale production will begin to rebound at prices above USD50, will keep prices below that level until a supply deficit has eroded some of the inventory overhang.
We have therefore left our 2017 and 2018 price assumptions unchanged at USD45 and USD55 respectively. Our long-term expectations for both Brent and WTI are unchanged at USD65, reflecting our view on the long-run marginal cost of supply.
Our natural gas expectations have also changed, with price assumptions for US Henry Hub rising and UK National Balancing Point (NBP) falling. In the US, the market has begun to work through the excess inventory build-up associated with last year's El Nino winter. Slower production growth in key shale plays has also helped. For NBP, increased US gas exports have contributed to a medium-term LNG glut, which we expect to put pressure on international spot prices.
Our Henry Hub price assumptions are USD2.35/mcf in 2016, rising to USD2.75 in 2017, USD3.00 in 2018 and USD3.25 in the long term. For NBP we assume a price of USD5.00/mcf for 2016, USD5.50 in 2017, USD6.00 in 2018 and USD6.50 in the long term.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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