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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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