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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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