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Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
 SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the month (-1% m/m; +222% y/y).
The Baltic Dry Index ended June up 8%, driven by stronger chartering activity for larger vessel classes towards month-end. Forward curves imply near-term upside to Cape rates, though a relatively muted outlook for other vessel classes.
Stronger iron ore shipments and optimism over Chinese coal output restrictions, in turn spurring higher import demand, have provided some near-term support. Sustainability is in question though. Our latest industry survey suggests caution clearly persists, with surveyed participants becoming moderately more bearish on the timeline of dry bulk freight supply-demand rebalancing over the past six months.
SGX Freight Derivatives
Freight volumes in June totaled 36,542 contracts (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts (-1% m/m; +222% y/y). Futures comprised 98% of total swaps/futures volume during the period.
BDI creeps higher in June; volatility muted
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the month up 8% in June, with relative stability across the board before rates rose into month-end on stronger chartering activity. Capesize rates closed June 17% higher, while Panamax rates rose 15%. Among smaller vessels, Supramax and Handysize rates ended the month up 7% and down 3%, respectively. In the Capesize market in particular, volatility dropped to uncharacteristically low levels.
Forward expectations rose across the board in June, with the front end of the time charter forward curves (2016 contract months) all rising over 10%, while the near months in the Panamax and Supramax forward curves rose 19.5% and 18.3% respectively during June. Looking ahead, the forward curves imply strong upside for Capesize rates in the months ahead, while other vessel classes are expected to remain largely steady. The spot Cape/Panamax ratio closed June broadly unchanged at 1.50x, versus 1.49x a month ago (LTM avg.: 1.41x), remaining moderately above its last-twelve-month average.
Freight rates rise into month-end, industry remains cautious on market fundamentals
Following relative stability for much of the month, freight rates ticked higher into month-end on stronger chartering activity. In the coal market, domestic Chinese output restrictions and the resulting rise in unit costs have been spurring some optimism of stronger seaborne coal demand. In the iron ore market, Brazilian iron ore exports have notably been sequentially higher in Q3 (versus Q2) in all of the past ten years. That said, our latest industry survey indicates views have become moderately more cautious on the timing of a sustainable market rebalancing in the dry bulk freight market, with few anticipating a meaningful improvement in the supply -demand balance until 2018 at the earliest, and about a quarter of respondents not anticipating this until after 2020. Our survey also indicated a consensus view of between 0-3% global net dry bulk fleet growth this year.
Across key dry bulk commodities, iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increased in June, continuing their general and sustained uptrend since early Q4 2015. Iron ore prices on average declined 5.7% m/m in June, though broke out higher towards month-end on a sentiment-driven rise in Chinese steel prices. Thermal coal inventory at Chinese ports on the other hand declined through June, while seaborne prices ended the month around a year-to-date high. Domestic Chinese output restrictions and higher unit costs have spurred optimism over stronger import demand in the coming months.
Source: SGX | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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