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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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