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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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