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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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