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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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