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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
IntermodalAs we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest  level ever, at 290 points.

Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.

From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction.  We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.

More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.

At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.

So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.

The million dollar question though is “by how much?”  Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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