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Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
 As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started wondering whether they have missed out on the bottoming secondhand prices that the market witnessed during the end of last year and throughout the begging of this one, when the BDI touched its lowest level ever, at 290 points.
Following this rather extended period of low rates, as the spring season kicked off, the steadier demand for dry bulk commodities together with the improvement in owner’s psychology helped the index move above 600 points in April, after more than five months. The improved market sentiment has consequently helped second hand prices firm a bit during the past weeks. The positive momentum the market achieved was also helped by a few developments that started drawing a healthier picture of the fundamentals ahead as a number of owners took steps that will more effectively tackle the tonnage oversupply issue.
From one hand, the intense scrapping that has taken place during this year is certainly pushing things towards the “right” direction. We have seen vessels younger than what is considered the typical scrapping age being sold for demolition. As expected, it was the bigger sizes that experienced the most impressive increase in demolition volumes.
More than 230 bulkers have been sold for scrap this year and while in terms of volumes we are around the same levels when compared to the same period last year, when you look at these volumes in terms of dwt, there is a 2% increase. This means that bigger vessels are being sold for scrap, while in terms of age, the average scrapping age for bulkers has moved from 30 years a couple of years ago to 24 years in 2016 so far.
At the same time, newbuilding activity or the lack thereof has been dramatic. Despite the fact that newbuilding prices are at exceptionally low levels, reflecting both the dire straits the industry has found itself in together of course with the almost non-existent appetite for dry bulk ordering, there seems to be no hope for a spark in ordering for dry tonnage. On top of that, the few orders that are being reported are tight to specific projects.
So despite the historically low rates, long-term fundamentals are slowly improving for the dry bulk market. If high demolition activity continues throughout the second half of the year and slippage this year remains high, we could well see minimum dry bulk fleet growth in 2016 and even negative fleet growth within specific segments like Capes. If this is combined with healthy demand for dry bulk commodities from countries like India and a gradual strengthening of Chinese momentum that seems to have been lost during the past year, things should further improve by next year.
The million dollar question though is “by how much?” Will demand levels be finally adequate to overcome the overcapacity issue that is finally being tackled by intense scrapping and absent ordering, or will demand be just enough to keep providing lifelines periodically to a market that won’t be able to break above 1,000 points for much longer?
By Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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