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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
Tuesday, 24 May 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES NEGATIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF COAL EXCEPT 3800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was down 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton this past week, sho ...
Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Indonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 20 ...
Monday, 23 May 16
THE PANAMAX INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this week.
The freight market was firm and all ...
Friday, 20 May 16
SHIPBUILDING CONTRACTS: CAN I CANCEL? SHOULD I CANCEL? - THE SHIPOWNER CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are many circumstances in which a buyer of a new-build vessel might want to terminate or cancel their contract with ...
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Showing 2421 to 2425 news of total 6871 |
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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