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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. &n ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
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Showing 2411 to 2415 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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