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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
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Showing 2416 to 2420 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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