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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
 Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the shipping markets are often reported to be many times more volatile than the stock markets or other fluctuating economic variables. Here we take a look at some metrics which shine some light on the relative volatility of the industry.
Measuring The Waves
Many metrics can be used to measure aspects of volatility (though none are perfect). A few are calculated here to compare volatility in the shipping markets with that in the stock and commodity markets. One classic measure of volatility is the ‘coefficient of variation’ which takes the standard deviation of a series over time (a measure of the degree of dispersion of observations in a series) and divides it by the mean (average) level of the series.
Volatile Business
This metric highlights the degree of volatility present in the shipping markets (see graph). For the ClarkSea Index it stands at 50%, for VLCC spot earnings 73% and Capesize spot earnings 104%. For the FTSE-100 the figure stands at 29% and for the S&P 500 43%. The stock markets, often thought highly capricious, appear to be quite a bit less volatile than shipping on this basis (and given that stock markets generally track a trend rather than a cycle, one might have expected their coefficients to be biased upwards). The oil price compares more closely to shipping; the figure for Brent crude stands at 73%. Another useful metric is the average absolute monthly change as a percentage of the mean. For the ClarkSea Index this stands at 8%, for VLCC spot earnings at 26% and Capesize spot earnings 18%. For the FTSE-100 and S&P 500 this stands at around 3% and for Brent at around 6%, so again much lower.
Of course this analysis doesn’t capture everything. It excludes week-to-week (or day-to-day) volatility, though one might suppose that this could further emphasise shipping’s volatility (for example, see VLCC spot earnings on page 2). Equally it does not handle (or ‘de-trend’) indicators differently to account for the fact that stock markets typically follow a long-term trend, rather than a cycle like shipping.
Variation On A Theme?
But, even using a regression approach to ascertain variation from simple trend levels, over 60% of the FTSE-100 movement is explained by the trend. In shipping, much more of the variation appears to remain ‘unexplained’ (less than 10% of the variation of the ClarkSea Index would be accounted for by a simple trend).
Need Good Sea Legs?
So, volatility in shipping easily holds its own against fluctuations in other economic phenomena. It’s a competitive business, and rapid changes in pricing can be driven by the steepness of the supply curve at the margins, as well as a range of quite unpredictable factors. This helps make shipping interesting for asset players and short-term speculators but tricky for investors looking for certainty of return and analysts looking for a clear picture. Like seafarers themselves, shipping market players can quite rightly point to having the stomach for ups and downs as much as anyone.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
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Showing 2426 to 2430 news of total 6871 |
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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