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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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