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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
Wednesday, 17 February 16
TAP ON OPPORTUNITIES IN GROWING ELECTRICITY DEMAND AND NEW COAL POWER PROJECT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES - IBC
Tap on Opportunities in Growing Electricity Demand and New Coal Power Project Developments in the Philippines
Coal Power Generation 2016
19- ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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