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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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