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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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