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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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