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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
 Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that today’s global orderbook appears less onerous than previously (at 16% of the fleet), capacity levels are still important, and a look at the future of the supply side can provide an idea of just how hard a balancing act the markets still face in today’s demand conditions.
Like The High-Wire?
An indicator combining capacity and demand elements gives an idea of how difficult it might be just to maintain the current supply-demand balance, before the surplus present in many sectors today can even be addressed. The graph shows a ratio which compares the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet to ‘current’ and ‘trend’ rates of demand growth in a selection of sectors (see graph description for details). At a high level, this broadly indicates how many years of demand growth the orderbook to be delivered over the next few years equates to, and how much the supply side will need to otherwise adjust to balance things out. In many cases, even after a sharp slowdown in ordering, this looks like a real high-wire act.
How Hard Does It Look?
The orderbook for oil tankers equates to 18% of the fleet, equivalent to 8 years of ‘current’ demand growth, so there could be some work to be done there to maintain today’s balance. However, it’s the bulkcarrier sector which really illustrates the impact of slower demand growth. Today’s orderbook, 15% of the fleet, equates to 11 years of ‘current’ demand growth. In the boxship sector, relatively faster trade growth (despite an historically slothful 2015) means that today’s orderbook equates to a perhaps more manageable 4 years of ‘current’ trade growth. Other sectors reinforce the impact of demand side issues. The LNG carrier orderbook equates to 14 years of ‘current’ trade expansion (although expectations might be for improved trade growth, and the figure drops to 3 years on the basis of the ‘trend’ rate), and for car carriers the figure stands at 13 years.
Balancing Acts
Of course, in market mechanics, it’s often the supply side which adjusts, and other factors not captured by the ratio used here can lend a hand. Demolition is one obvious factor, with, for example, the relative size of potential bulkcarrier capacity growth suppressed by record levels of demolition this year so far (14.1m dwt in Q1). Delay or cancellation of the orderbook also plays a role: 42% of start year scheduled bulkcarrier deliveries failed to enter the fleet in 2015. Changes in vessel productivity, such as adjustments to operating speeds, can also impact of the absorption of capacity in the future.
Still Walking The Tightrope
Nevertheless, shipping globally still appears to be walking a tightrope in the current demand environment. Today’s orderbook equates to 7 years of ‘current’ seaborne trade growth (a rate of 2.4%), though looks slightly less daunting (5 years) if demand growth was to reach the last decade’s ‘trend’ rate (3.4%). But in current demand conditions, even to maintain the status quo, there’s a significant supply-side balancing act to perform.
Source: Clarksons
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Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
Monday, 01 February 16
INDONESIA'S SECOND LARGEST COAL MINER ADARO ENERGY HAS PRODUCED 51.46 MT IN 2015; 8% LOWER COMPARED TO FY14
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy, the Indonesia’s second largest coal producer by volume has produced 51.46 Mt in 2015, 8% lower compared to ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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