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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
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