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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 17 February 16
THE OWNERS FACING HISTORICAL LOW DRY BULK RATES; COAL IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL POINTING TO A STRONG TREND OF DECLINING CONSUMPTION
The sharp fall in dry bulk rates that has been taking place since the end of last year and has left owners facing historical low rates for a substa ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CALL THE DOCTOR! SHIPPING'S MEDICAL DRAMA UNFOLDS......- CLARKSONS
The recycling market has started 2016 with a bang, with a huge volume of tonnage heading to demolition facilities. Many of the key shipping markets ...
Monday, 15 February 16
CS 42 COAL INDEX ROSE 0.07% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.96 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 15 February 16
BALTIC INDEX MARGINALLY ROSE BY A POINT D-D; CAPESIZE INDEX DOWN 13 POINTS W-W; PANAMAX INDEX UP 29 POINTS W-W
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The BDI, The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measu ...
Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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