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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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