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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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