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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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