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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
BDI FURTHER STRENGTHENING; THE INCREASE IN RATES WAS NOT SUBSTANTIAL
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on a positive note for a second week in a row, further strengthening the belief that the market might be bottoming ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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