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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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