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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 31 January 16
BDI CONTINUED ITS FALL AND CLOSE AT A FRESH RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertilizer, continued it ...
Friday, 29 January 16
INDONESIAN BENCHMARK COAL PRICE SETTLES DOWN $ 0.31, OR 0.58%, AT $ 53.20 A TON
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further down in January 2016. HBA has slumped by 0.58 ...
Friday, 29 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 2 PERCENT FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 milli ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
COAL REMAINS THE NO.1 FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION - EXXONMOBIL
COALspot.com: Energy demand trends from 2010 to 2040 are expected to vary significantly around the world, as countries move along very different tr ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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