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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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