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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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