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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 15 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FIRM SLIGHTLY LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month over month and week over week.
According to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's r ...
Friday, 15 January 16
SHIPPING: 2016 STARTED WITH MISERY ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As one would have expected, the dry bulk market starter the new year where it left off in 2015, plunging to never seen before depths, as the market ...
Friday, 15 January 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE ACROSS ALL BASINS: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 14 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q3 DELIVERY CLOSED $5.90 LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coal ...
Wednesday, 13 January 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 109 MMST IN 2015; COAL EXPORTS DECREASED 21% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production declined by 109 million short tons (MMst) (11%) in 2015, the largest decline ever recorded, says EIA.
The 2 ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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