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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 09 January 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX SINKS 10% WEEK OVER WEEK TO AN ALL-TIME LOW OF 429 POINTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, decline around 10% we ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY H1'16 REMAIN FLAT AS DEMAND DROPS OFF
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month, flat week over week. The price for coal has been in a Dull Market sinc ...
Friday, 08 January 16
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2'16 DELIVERY CLOSED UP $0.13 AT $45.50 PER TON
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap decline month over month and slightly up week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB R ...
Friday, 08 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES 1.6% TO 11.7 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7million short ...
Friday, 08 January 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S CRISIS DEEPENS AS RATES ARE DROPPING TO NEW RECORD LOWS BY THE DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Just when you would think that the dry bulk market is reaching its bottom, even as it has long surpassed all-time lows, each day that passes by at ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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