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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 05 August 16
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE REMAINING AT DEPRESSING LEVELS DUE TO LACK OF FRESH CARGOES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week has been one of the slowest for some time with rates under pressure in most areas.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroke ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES ARE STARTING TO ZOOM HIGHER; HBA ROSE 10.13% TO US$ 58.37 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since August 2015.
The Director General of Mineral and Coa ...
Thursday, 04 August 16
BREXIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL SHIPPING AND SEA TRADE - EVERSHEDS
The buzzword for the post-Brexit landscape both in Europe and further afield is ‘uncertainty’. No-one really knows the long term effect ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
RECAAP INFORMATION SHARING CENTRE ISSUES SPECIAL REPORT ON THE ABDUCTING OF CREW FROM SHIPS IN WATERS OFF EASTERN SABAH AND SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the light of three incidents where the crew of tug boats were abducted in the waters off Eastern Sabah and Southern Ph ...
Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The Good…
Demand. Amidst all the unprecedented geopolitical turmoil and shifts in the likes of Brexit, the IMF lowered last month its glob ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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