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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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