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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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