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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE INDONESIAN DRAFT NEW MINING LAW - AMENDMENTS TO THE 2009 MINING LAW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
CS50 COAL INDEX HITS NEW FIFTY-WEEKS HIGH
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 1.78% week over week to averaging $41.85 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND WORLD TRADE ON THE DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN YEARS - VDKI
Hard coal production and world trade on the decline for the first time in years – not a harbinger of a global energy turnaround
Worldwid ...
Tuesday, 09 August 16
BREXIT, BRITANNIA AND THE WAVES - TREVOR CROWE, CLARKSON RESEARCH
This week, the Bank of England put into place its action plan following the UK referendum on 23rd June, which indicated the British population&rsqu ...
Monday, 08 August 16
INDONESIA'S DRAFT MINING LAW HINTS AT FUTURE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
COALspot.com: A draft mining law published by Indonesia's Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources provides use ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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