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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 15 August 16
THE SPOT FREIGHT MARKET STRENGTHEN OVER THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose as Cape and Panamax segments ending in a positive no ...
Friday, 12 August 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ENDING AUGUST 6 FELL SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
CAPESIZE THE PACIFIC SIDE IS LOOKING MORE POSITIVE, DRIVEN BY AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rates continue to be under pressure with index ending up with 639 points and average TC value at USD6,680, said Fearnleys. Fearnleys A/S ...
Thursday, 11 August 16
EIA ESTIMATES THE DELIVERED COAL PRICE TO U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN 2017 AVERAGED $2.24/MMBTU; $0.05/MMBTU HIGHER THAN 2016 ESTIMATES
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in July was 65 million short tons (MMst), an 8 MMst (14%) increase from the previous month but 11 MMst (15%) low ...
Wednesday, 10 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT SOFTENING LAST WEEK; WE CAN SEE MUCH HEALTHIER NUMBERS STARTING SEPTEMBER
The Dry Bulk market kept softening last week as we have now started going through the traditionally quieter days of the summer season peak period, ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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