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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 06 September 16
INDO GOVT. SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT US$ 63.93 PER TON; JUMP 20.17% YTD
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since April 2015. The government declared benchmark prices f ...
Tuesday, 06 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS THE MAIN REGION KEEPING UP WITH THE POSITIVE SUPPORT - ALLIED
Capesize
Despite some mixed feelings being seen early on in the week, we managed to see a positive week-on-week close on Friday with some positiv ...
Monday, 05 September 16
INDIA BECAME ADARO'S SECOND LARGEST MARKET IN 1H' 16
COALspot.com: The Wara Balangan blend product has been well received by customers in China and India - AI
In the second quarter of 2 ...
Monday, 05 September 16
POOR FREIGHT RATES DESPITE STRONG DEMAND GROWTH FROM CHINA - BIMCO
Demand
The dry bulk commodity imports into and exports out of China we have seen in the first half of 2016 are very positive – and nothing ...
Monday, 05 September 16
FREIGHT RATE FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week except ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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