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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 September 16
THE CAPE MARKET HAS GAINS ON WEEK; THE CAPE INDEX SETTLING AT 1566 POINTS ON FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose and ending in a positive note this past week. The BD ...
Friday, 09 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DECLINED SLIGHTLY TO 16.1 MMST, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 09 September 16
CAPESIZE: THE SENTIMENT IS SOLID, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start with Labour Day celebrations in the United States leading to very little being reported from the Atlantic basin. Supramaxe ...
Thursday, 08 September 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2016 UP 29% COMPARED TO MAY 2016, SAYS EIA
U.S. coal production in August was 71 million short tons (MMst), which is 6 MMst (9%) higher than in the previous month and 12 MMst (14%) lower tha ...
Wednesday, 07 September 16
WEEKLY MARKET (TANKER) REPORT - INTERMODAL
What goes around comes around! The Shipping industry is infamous for its seasonality and cyclicality and the tanker sector is no exception to these ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
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