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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 02 September 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 19 MMST IN 2016 TO 55 MMST
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million sho ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
SUPRAMAX GETTING LEVELS OF MID/HIGHER 7K DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR TRIPS TO CHINA AND AROUND 9K FOR DIRECTION INDIA - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week started slower with London on bank holiday Monday. The south east Asian market seems to have been taking a breather with chart ...
Thursday, 01 September 16
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.33 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.10 bill ...
Wednesday, 31 August 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET MANAGED TO FIND FURTHER SUPPORT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE SUMMER SEASON - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market managed to find further support during the last days of the summer season, with the BDI climbing above 700 last Friday, reachin ...
Tuesday, 30 August 16
THE SUDDEN SURGE IN IRON ORE TRADE HAS CREPT UP ON THE MARKET THIS PAST WEEK - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The sudden surge in Iron ore trade has crept up on the market this past week bringing about a change in the prospects for Capes. Continued increase ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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